Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 36.727060 39.968156 43.559800 47.875087 52.974377 58.881044 66.352302
2025-07-20 31.624879 35.749717 40.644906 47.014572 55.298046 66.046505 81.702641
2025-07-27 29.986075 34.869319 40.976004 49.451204 61.424824 78.711584 107.914522
2025-08-03 28.311826 33.595116 40.459552 50.466843 65.582507 89.526899 136.229823
2025-08-10 26.723635 32.196523 39.518000 50.614635 68.327890 98.777080 167.142569
2025-08-17 24.953566 30.365544 37.747256 49.235105 68.300749 103.124319 190.818093
2025-08-24 23.442069 28.755302 36.116735 47.825147 67.906447 106.597313 215.327080
2025-08-31 23.063859 28.669689 36.643301 49.807922 73.742466 124.711960 305.514965
2025-09-07 21.915375 27.406796 35.312261 48.594298 73.431427 129.091231 355.312503
2025-09-14 20.941612 26.334243 34.184156 47.589745 73.339090 134.027035 420.432884
2025-09-21 19.766235 24.908765 32.426552 45.346208 70.424383 130.741150 434.535838
2025-09-28 19.118586 24.223492 31.768504 44.949034 71.251172 138.076677 546.521615
2025-10-05 18.864586 24.227459 32.375935 47.224624 79.131021 174.095869 1462.865389
2025-10-12 17.961262 23.219944 31.319551 46.396579 80.076314 189.860079 3662.756616
2025-10-19 17.749381 23.238730 31.919916 48.777639 89.594900 253.777570 NaN
2025-10-26 17.311596 22.869552 31.826815 49.769627 96.008226 320.489477 NaN
2025-11-02 16.780826 22.315411 31.361220 49.913949 100.138525 389.016780 NaN
2025-11-09 16.074893 21.440659 30.266746 48.566532 99.273441 417.801977 NaN
2025-11-16 15.421463 20.618873 29.212412 47.188756 97.970404 442.744442 NaN
2025-11-23 15.284114 20.623659 29.628700 49.126090 108.652249 692.337070 NaN
2025-11-30 14.739567 19.932127 28.730670 47.940432 107.741274 762.550470 NaN
2025-12-07 14.258498 19.325489 27.953852 46.958665 107.368707 860.181117 NaN
2025-12-14 13.650848 18.487474 26.709583 44.764814 101.744063 779.790271 NaN